regular seminar Giacomo Zanella (Bocconi University, Italy)
at: 14:00 - 15:00 KCL, Strand room: Webinar abstract: | Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is a popular method for estimating out-of-sample predictive accuracy. However, computing LOO-CV criteria can be computationally expensive due to the need to fit the model multiple times. In the Bayesian context, importance sampling provides a possible solution but classical approaches can easily produce estimators whose variance is infinite, making them potentially unreliable. Here we propose and analyze a novel mixture estimator to compute Bayesian LOO-CV criteria. Our method retains the simplicity and computational convenience of classical approaches, while guaranteeing finite variance of the resulting estimators. Both theoretical and numerical results are provided to illustrate the improved robustness and efficiency. The computational benefits are particularly significant in high-dimensional problems, allowing to perform Bayesian LOO-CV for a broader range of models. Keywords:Please use the teams link below to join the webinar when it is about to start. https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_MTk3YmRjN2UtMGYxMS00OTk4LWFlZTktZWNjMTQzODYyODdh%40thread.v2/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%228370cf14-16f3-4c16-b83c-724071654356%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%2249a186d8-c48f-425c-8979-73e67ab09011%22%7d Upcoming webinars: https://mth.kcl.ac.uk/statistics/ |