31.03.2022 (Thursday)

ST Predictive constructions based on Measure-valued Pólya urn processes.

regular seminar Sandra Fortini (Bocconi University )

at:
14:00 - 15:00
KCL, Strand
room: Webinar
abstract:

The central assumption in the Bayesian approach to inductive reasoning is that there exists a random parameter that rules the distribution of the observations. The model is completed by choosing a prior distribution for the parameter, and inference consists in computing the conditional distribution of the parameter, given the sample. A different modeling strategy uses Ionescu-Tulcea theorem to define the law of the observation process from the sequence of predictive distributions. In this talk, we consider a class of predictive constructions based on measure-valued Pólya urn processes. These processes have been introduced in the probabilistic literature as an extension of k-colour urn models, but their implications for Bayesian statistics have yet to be explored.

Keywords: Predictive Distribution, Pólya Urn Process

MS teams link :

https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_MDMzY2FmYjEtNDQ2Ni00ODgwLTg3MmMtM2MzNDdiYTc4Y2E2%40thread.v2/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%228370cf14-16f3-4c16-b83c-724071654356%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%221921fbe5-00da-4341-912d-2111ba06cbe0%22%7d