Consultation Response: Future of Population Statistics

1. According to the National Statistician, Ian Diamond, ‘we have reached a point where a serious question can be asked about the role the census plays in our statistical system’. The consultation is clearly intended to lay the groundwork for abolishing the 2031 census, replacing it with an untested patchwork of administrative data and surveys.
2. An increased reliance on administrative data risks an increasingly fragmented and inaccurate data landscape. There is currently no mechanism for administrative data owners to be held accountable for the quality of their data. Data owners do not necessarily see their contribution to the national data infrastructure as a priority. Even with a variable as basic as sex, we have seen various administrative sources moving away from collecting accurate data, due to the pressure of internal or external lobbying (Sullivan, Murray and Mackenzie 2023). The consultation document characterizes administrative data as providing “full coverage” on sex. This is inaccurate, as the collection of data on sex has been eroded in recent years, and is no longer consistent. We note also that a lack of harmonization and accuracy in key variables causes problems with data linkage.
3. Administrative data is a vital supplement to the census, but the argument that it can replace all the functions of the census has not been convincingly made. There appears to be an element of wishful thinking in this view given the absence of a national identity system in the UK. Census data provides the sampling frame for survey data, and the standard against which representativeness is judged. It is vital in providing the benchmark for equalities monitoring. Administrative data cannot fulfil these functions of census data. Census completion, while not 100%, remains very high and has the advantage of being a legal requirement. Administrative data sources, to various degrees, will disproportionately omit hard-to-reach populations which are not registered with service providers and will additionally suffer from item non-response and non-consent to data-sharing, both of which may disproportionately affect particular population groups.
4. The ONS has a weak track record of user-engagement. Greater willingness to listen to expert opinion would have avoided undesirable outcomes in the case of the census sex question guidance (Sullivan 2021) and in the case of the gender identity data (Biggs 2023). There is little sign from the ONS that lessons have been learned from these mistakes. The consultation document mentions the Inclusive Data Taskforce. This taskforce has made eminently sensible recommendations regarding the collection of data on sex, but their findings do not appear to have been promoted to data providers by UKSA.
5. We call upon the Office for National Statistics to conduct the census in 2031. Any alternative using administrative data needs to be implemented and proven to yield comprehensive and accurate results—equivalent in quality to those yielded by the census—before any plan to abolish the decennial census.
6. We further call for UKSA to support efforts to improve the accuracy and harmonisation of administrative data, including, but not limited to, ensuring that sex is recorded as standard and not conflated with gender identity.

Signatories

Professor Alice Sullivan
Professor of Sociology, University College London

Dr Michael Biggs
University of Oxford

Tarani Chandola
Professor of Medical Sociology, University of Hong Kong

Colin Mills
Department of Sociology, University of Oxford

Dr Paul Norman
Associate Professor Population & Health, School of Geography, University of Leeds

Dr Sam Parsons
Principal Research Fellow, UCL SRI

Professor Nick Bailey FAcSS
University of Glasgow

Emeritus Professor Richard D Wiggins
Emeritus Professor of Quantitative Social Science, UCL

Professor Vikki Boliver
Professor of Sociology, Durham University

Dr Roxanne Connelly
Senior Lecturer in Sociology and Quantitative Methods, University of Edinburgh

Professor Susan McVie OBE FRSE FAcSS
Professor of Quantitative Criminology, University of Edinburgh

Professor Maria Sobolewska
University of Manchester

Professor Kathy Sylva
University of Oxford Education Department

Tak Wing Chan
Professor of Quantitative Social Science, University College London

Professor Heather Joshi
Professor Emerita, UCL Social Research Institute

Professor Vernon Gayle
Professor of Sociology & Social Statistics, University of Edinburgh

Dr Kevin Ralston
University of Edinburgh

Professor Malcolm Williams
Cardiff University

Dr Ginevra Floridi
University of Edinburgh

Dr Paul Norris
Senior Lecturer in Social Policy, University of Edinburgh

Dr Valeria Skafida
University of Edinburgh

Professor Emerita Jacqueline Scott
Sociology, University of Cambridge

Professor Mike Hough
Emeritus Professor, Birkbeck, University of London

Professor Jennifer Wishart
University of Edinburgh

Dr Chris Playford
Senior Lecturer in Sociology, University of Exeter

John Van Reenen OBE FBA
London School of Economics

Professor Emeritus Paul Cheshire
London School of Economics

Emeritus Professor Hazel Inskip
Emeritus Professor of Statistical Epidemiology

Dr Christian Krekel
London School of Economics

Professor Francis Green
UCL

Professor Lucinda Platt
London School of Economics and Political Science

Professor Chris Taylor FLSW
Cardiff University

Professor Alun Hughes
Department of Population Science & Experimental Medicine, University College LondonCL

Professor Nan Dirk de Graaf
Professor in Sociology, Nuffield College, Oxford University

Prof Michelle Luciano
Psychology, University of Edinburgh

Dr. Andrei Zhirnov
Lecturer in Quantitative Political Science, University of Exeter

Professor Gabriella Conti
University College London

Professor Ailsa Henderson FRSE FAcSS
Professor of Political Science, University of Edinburgh

Paul Clarke
Professor Social Statistixs, Institute for Social & Economic Research

Christopher Sandmann
London School of Economics

Professor Miguel Leon-Ledesma
School of Economics, University of Kent

Professor Sin Yi Cheung
Cardiff University

Tim Doran
Professor of Health Policy, University of York

Dr Hannah Bunting
Lecturer in Quantitative British Politics, University of Exeter

Robert Ford
University of Manchester

Professor Steve Strand
Professor of Education, University of Oxford

Emla Fitzsimons
Professor of Economics, University College London

Professor Glen Bramley
Professor of Urban Studies, Heriot-Watt University

Professor Gale Macleod
Moray House School of Education and Sport, University of Edinburgh

Jan O. Jonsson
Professor of Sociology, Nuffield College, Oxford University

Professor Federico Varese
Nuffield College, Oxford

Professor Oriel Sullivan
Professor Emerita, Social Research Institute, UCL

Professor Ian Deary OBE FBA FMedSci
University of Edinburgh

Professor Emeritus Lindsay Paterson FBA, FRSE
Professor of Education Policy, Edinburgh University

Dr. Alexander Weiss, FRSB
Department of Psychology, University of Edinburgh

Professor Janis Baird
MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton

Vanessa Gash, DPhil Oxon.
City, University of London

Professor Brendan Burchell
Professor in the Social Sciences, University of Cambridge

Dr Laurence Lessard-Phillips
Associate Professor, University of Birmingham

Professor Rohini Mathur
Professor and Chair of Health Data Science, Queen Mary, University of London

Dr David Webster MA MBA FAcSS FCIH
Honorary Senior Research Fellow, University of Glasgow

Bernard Ryan
Professor of Migration Law, University of Leicester

Daniel Muijs
Professor of Education, Queen's University Belfast

Professor Alex Singleton
Professor of Geographic Information Science, University of Liverpool

Dr Lisa Buckner
Associate Professor of Social Statistics, University of Leeds

Professor Ian Harvey
Emeritus Professor of Epidemiology, University of East Anglia

Professor Ian Gordon FAcSS
Emeritus Professor of Human Geography , London School of Economics

Leon Feinstein
Professor of Education and Children’s Social Care, Univ Oxford

Dr Judith Syson PhD BSc Hons AKC
Course Leader, University of Edinbugh

Professor Robert Rowthorn
King's College Cambridge

Alan Marshall
Professor, University of Edinburgh

Sally McManus
Senior Lecturer, City, University of London

Professor Jill Rubery FBA FaSS
Professor Alliance Manchester Business School, University of Manchester

Professor Ludi Simpson
University of Manchester, retired, Honorary Professor of Population Studies

Adrian Sinfield
Professor Emeritus in Social Policy, Edinburgh University

Dr. Andrei S. Morgan FRCPCH MSc PhD
Neonatologist / Epidemiologist, London, UK

Kate Pickett OBE FRSA FFPH FAcSS
Professor of Epidemiology, University of York

Danny Dorling
Halford Mackinder Professor of Geography, University of Oxford, UK

Stewart Lansley
Visiting Fellow, University of Bristol

Tony Whelan
Dept Mathematics, London School of Economics

Dr Stefanie Doebler
Lancaster University

Professor David Byrne FAcSS
Emeritus Professor of Sociology Durham University

Professor Carol Dezateux MBBS MRCP MD CBE
Professor of Clinical Epidemiology and Health Data Science

Professor Ronan Lyons
Professor of Public Health, Swansea University

Dr Arianna Bove
Independent Scholar

85 signatories so far.

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